11/3/04
people probably wouldn't have predicted ten years before that a
computer would defeat the chess champion in 10 years. We see the
trend but not the qualitative change that will result from that
trend. (Or we intuitively expect a trend to level off before it
disrupts our world.)
predictions of an airplane in every garage--why haven't these come true?
- people aren't comfortable living that way--not
socially possible
- doesn't fit the American dream
- too hard to reduce the risks to an acceptable level
- expense too high
- once a system is established it is hard to change
(technological momentum)
- too complicated
- regulations
- extrapolation of the automobile instead of
realizing that the future might go in a different direction
How to evaluate predictions of the future:
- is current technology leading us in that direction
- are there increasing problems that will require a
new direction
- do the risks and problems of the technology look
overwhelming
- will the benefits of the technology spur
increasing interest
- does increasing use lead to more benefits
- how will it affect how we interact with each other
- how does it affect social norms and morals
- how easy is it to integrate it into current systems
- does it fit the American dream
- will people want it or are there human values they
want more