Wrigley 1
Classical economic view:
- economists believed that
resources were limited and population would grow to
use up any increase in the supply of jobs and food, so
there could never be increases in the living standard
of the population as a whole
- the supply of land is limited
- because the majority will always
earn subsistence wages, the market for comforts and
luxuries will only be the small number of rich.
Therefore such products can be made by specialized
craftspeople, there will be no demand for mass
production
- read the first full paragraph on
page 13 carefully
What are the limits on an organic economy?
- classical answer: land
- Wrigley's answer: energy
A similar argument for energy
- if production is based on human and animal muscle, the
amount of energy provided by the crops you can grow is limited
- if you had to depend on the growth of wood for fuel you
couldn't produce much metal
- an organic economy (one dependent on human and animal
power and plants for fuel) cannot support an industrial
revolution
Incomes tend to return to the subsistence minimum (enough
only for minimum food, shelter, clothing and fuel), therefore
little demand for comforts and luxuries
the percentage of income an average family spends on food
approximates the percentage of workers in agriculture (because
if families spend 75% of their income on food then there isn't a
market for workers to make other things)
Wrigley's key argument:
it wouldn't be possible to have sustained economic growth
without dramatically increased use of inorganic sources of
energy
- now energy is no longer a limit, and coal is also a much
denser source of energy
- but you also need a decline in population growth
- when coal and oil become a major source this is actually
a transition from a sustainable to an unsustainable
economy. Some day, centuries later, we will run out of
coal and oil