the technology is close to ready to go, but how will it
be organized
do we need new laws about liability
ethics issue--will the car choose to minimize loss of
life even if the driver gets killed that way
are they more often going to be individually owned or
belong to pools (eg. Uber)
role of the military in technological development
will trucking go driverless--what is the impact of that
on unemployment
how much will we redesign roads for driverless cars
This chapter looks at the period just before the big change
around 1900
technology was beginning to change the world, but it hasn't fully
sunk in with the general public there were lots of new technologies but it wasn't yet clear
which ones will be successful
technological change was already speeding up
it wasn't clear which technologies would win out
still held within the old framework of tradition
people didn't yet realize how completely the world could
change
people had little sense of how different the future would
be
Technologies are not inevitable or predictable:
we can't fully imagine where technology will go in the
future
we don't want all possible technologies--some are
outlawed
not all possible technologies succeed
Why did people not see what was coming? Why is the future
development of technology so hard to predict?
small differences in the beginning can result in hugely
different outcomes (the butterfly effect--chaos theory)
we are still going to try to predict, so lets look for
what mistakes we usually make in predictions
we can predict fairly well when trends continue--Moore's law (computers
will get smaller and faster)
people predict continuing change in the same direction
(eg. pony express, cable car), but instead revolutionary new
technologies come along
some technologies fail because they come along without
the demand (eg. clipper ships were profitable only
when speed was at a premium because trade was not flowing
steadily) or infrastructure (eg. you can't sell
cars fueled by hydrogen until you have gas
stations that sell hydrogen) to support them
technologies come in systems, and a technology can't
catch on without the needed infrastructure and other supports
infrastructure:
the systems you need to support other technologies--eg. roads,
sewer systems, electrical distribution systems, the
internet--these are often paid for by the government
How easy is it to come up with new technology? That varies
depending on:
more scientific knowledge
patent system
a culture that values innovation
easily available technologies for making what you have
invented
necessary infrastructure being available
People in the 1890s couldn't see a major change coming, can we?
Can you predict tipping points?
Perhaps the fundamental change was the putting into place of
systems that inventors could rely on
infrastructure--the systems that support a society, such
as roads, electric power transmission lines, sewer systems,
the internet
low cost mass-produced materials such as quality iron and
steel
low cost manufacturing methods for metal
machines--American system of manufacture (interchangeable
parts)
Infrastructure:
infrastructure is particularly physical and
organizational systems that are used by the public or by
different companies, not built by one company for its own use
for example, once you have an infrastructure for
distributing electric power, then new devices to use electric
power can be invented
consider the infrastructure of roads for automobiles
there were hard-surface roads in some cities before the
automobile
network of dirt roads--lots of mud and ruts
but the automobile needed better roads (some built for
bicycles)
old system--roads built by private investors and people
paid tolls to use the roads
what ended up happening is the government built
roads--eg. state highways
part of road-building is supported by gasoline taxes
subway systems, water and sewer systems
infrastructure doesn't much get build until 1880s,
1890s...
once you have infrastructures and readily available materials,
technological change can happen more quickly
more technologies start to succeed
iron and steel were the defining new material--they made it
possible to do all sorts of new things
iron had become the key material of the industrial
revolution in England in the 18th century
cast iron for buildings became popular in the U.S. first
for decoration
wrought iron was harder to make--heat and pound it
repeatedly to make it less brittle
steel--iron with just the right amount of
carbon--Bessemer method of mass producing steel invented in
late 19th century
battleships were a symbol of the power of iron even
though Lienhard argues they weren't very effective
Cable cars in San Francisco were an example of the odd
technologies of the early enthusiasm for using iron and steel
in new ways
the inventor of San Francisco cable cars was a salesman
who sold wire rope
cable cars have a mechanism that grabs onto a cable
running continuously under the street
the cable was powered by a stationary steam engine
some lines survived in San Francisco because the hills
are so steep that streetcars didn't work--in other cities
they were quickly replaced by electric-powered street
railways (trolleys)
The Brooklyn Bridge was completed in 1883,
connecting Manhattan and Brooklyn, the longest suspension
bridge in the world at the time
John Roebling was the foremost bridge
designer of his time and had built several other major
suspension bridges (radio show on
Roebling). He had earned a degree in civil
engineering in Germany, at a time when there was no school
in the United States offering engineering degrees (except in
effect West Point)
he had invented a way of making wire cables
that made suspension bridges more economical and he also
understood better than other engineers at the time how to
make them safe
some of his ideas. like the Tripartite
bridge in Pittsburgh, were not realized
But the Brooklyn Bridge was, though the
politics of funding the bridge were nasty
work began on the Brooklyn bridge in Jan.
1870
it pushed considerably what technology could
do, many
casualties
John Roebling died of tetanus during
construction, his son Washington
A. Roebling took up the work but was paralyzed by
cassion disease (what scuba divers call the bends--the
harmful effects of nitrogen bubbles in the body if you go
from high to normal pressure air too quickly).
Washington Roebling's wife Emily
Warren
Roebling became the construction supervisor and saw
the bridge to completion.
the bridge made a connection that made
possible a larger New York City (at the time it was built
Brooklyn was a separate city--Brooklyn, Queens, Staten
Island, the Bronx and Manhattan were consolidated into one
city in 1898).
some people were bothered by its bare
utility, they thought of architecture on the basis of
decoration
but aesthetics were changing to celebrate
utility--modern architecture wanted to get rid of all that
old decoration and celebrate functional form
technology took on a role as monument--had
symbolic importance to a community
conditions for the survival of a new technology (p. 35)
the right time
satisfy wants and/or needs
sustainable--will there be the infrastructure to make it
last?
infrastructure (eg. the Soviets built tractors in large
numbers but farmers couldn't get them repaired)
expectations (does it make sense to people or go too
far?)
Frank Baum (Wizard of Oz author) wrote a book about the dangers
of technology called The
Master
Key:
An
Electrical Fairy Tale technology is developed
by people, it doesn't follow some necessary logic of one
technology leading to another
to look at what is going to come next:
what do they have?
what technologies already exist to build on?
education
how much science do they use?
whom do they work for?
where will the money come from?
what do they need?
growing population
changing economics (eg. do farmers grow cash crops or
mostly their own food)
availability of natural resources
war and other conflicts
how much of technological development is driven by
profit?
what new is coming
can we imagine that the world is going to be different?
what are we going to leave behind?
for example: do we live in a new world of science and
technology where we don't need religion any more?
a new world where we can do things in new ways
what would happen if we threw out tradition?
demand pull--need results in new inventions
technology push--somebody invents something and creates a new need
Demand pull:
what do we want technology to do for us?
In a
2015 survey the answer was better batteries, with much
less interest in wearable devices
