Technological determinism is the belief that technological progress in a particular direction is inevitable and inevitably shapes society in a particular way

• is technological progress a train that runs on one track in some inevitable direction
• is it inevitable that anything we can do we will do?
  
• we can't do anything to change the direction?
• do we have choices? are those choices limited?
• does technology give us more or fewer choices?
• in the 1970s there was a lot of talk about technology out of control (eg. Future Shock)--but that has faded as consumer technology has increased

The path of technological progress is not determined, but once we start down one path it has momentum so is hard to change

examples: driverless cars, genetic engineering

Is it inevitable that we will develop genetic engineering and be able to choose the characteristics of our children?

• is such a technology possible?--yes
• Crispr technology invented recently is the key to making this possible
• anything we can do we will do?
  
• will this science lead us to some different technology instead of the one we currently imagine?
• it might be better to fix the defect after the baby is born but that is harder
• what is the best approach:
• test the fetus for the genetic pattern (as early as 12 weeks) and abort if the fetus carries the disease
  
• select fertilized eggs without the disease
• genetic engineering to fix the gene in the fertilized egg--might this do harm in other way to the person?
  
• find a way to fix the gene after the baby is born
• find treatments for the disease
  
• accept people with differences
  
• eugenics: it is an advantage to have fewer genetic diseases, so we should control who gets to reproduce
• or, we show ourselves to be better by providing opportunities for people who may be different
• will someone want to develop that technology and will funding be available for that development?
• there is profit to be made by developing these technologies for animals
• some people think this should be developed
  

• will it be freely used or will it be regulated?
• will be regulated in the US
• where do you draw the line between fixing a disease and improving people
  
• will consumers choose to use it?
• cloning your dog or cat for $25,000 for a cat or $50,000 for a dog
  

In what senses do we see technological progress as something that we can't control? Or won't control?

• assuming global warming/climate change is going to cause serious problems and is caused significantly by burning fossil fuel, can we start to reduce world use of fossil fuel in the next 20 years?  maybe not because we are already so locked into the system we have and dependent on it, but is it that we don't have the political will to make a big change
• if we don't change our current path, consequences will be severe for some people and noticeable for almost everyone
• scientists believe it is possible to stop climate change before it becomes catastrophic by making several different changes in parallel--there are different choices as well
  
• are we going to choose to do that?
• which possible path do we choose
  
• misuse of computer (identity theft, spam) is a problem we won't be able to solve completely--will it limit what computers can do for us
• robots to care for old people
• is technology going to take away our jobs?
• automated telephone help--are consumers going to be able to say no to this?

In what sense do we behave as if we believe the direction of progress is inevitable?

• anything we can do we will do?
• some things we do but they don't catch on or is successfully stopped
  
• some things we choose not to do at all
  
• one side--we can stop technologies that we think are wrong, such as biological weapons
• other side--but someone else will do it
• at what stage is most possible to stop a technology
• stop the research
• do the research but never build it (but go ahead and develop defenses)
  
• build it but never use it
• we increasingly believe that some technologies are so horrible they should and can be stopped
• different societies focus on different technologies
• we choose technologies based on our values and we have trouble imagining that values can change
• but values do change, for example the environmental movement of 1960s
  

Technological determinism:

• is the direction in which technology develops natural and inevitable?  Or could history have gone in another direction?
  
• Once something is invented, is its use and spread inevitable?  Is it inevitable that having invented the atomic bomb we will use it in war?  "Everything we can do we will do."  We can develop the technology to clone human beings--will we do it?
  
• does technology force society to change in a particular direction?  Is it inevitable that a particular technology will have a particular consequence?
• if technology inevitably follows a certain path or has certain consequences then we should be able to predict the future
  

Is it inevitable that electric cars will replace the gasoline powered car?

• you can't use gasoline powered cars for ever
• maybe hydrogen will be a better solution than electric batteries
  
• maybe we will use automobiles less and public transportation more
• when there are several possible technologies, the "best" one doesn't necessarily win
• which is best for one group is not necessarily best for other people
• people decide which technology is best for them for many reasons, not just cost and capability, but also values
  

Nye says lots of people assume technological determinism is the way the world works, but historians who study technology are convinced it is not

• some societies have given up the wheel or used it only for toys and ceremonial objects
• the Japanese successfully gave up guns
• guns were introduced in Japan by the Portuguese in 1542 and by 1560 they were widely used (there is controversy about the details of this history)
  
• After 1630 the rulers of Japan limited and then nearly stopped the production of guns because they wanted to preserve the noble culture of sword-fighting and avoid the leveling effect of guns
• when the west forced Japan to open itself to trade in 1854 guns came back into use
• there has been considerable controversy about this history
  
• Nye argues that television and the internet may have a liberating effect in the U.S. but it has not had that effect in the Arab world (at the time he wrote)
  
• Television shows people how it might be different--but they don't necessarily want to be like us
  
• the internet means quick communication of alternative ideas and plans for rebellion--more ability to stand up to their government--but at first wasn't used
  
• internet, cell phones, etc. did contribute to the Arab Spring, to attempts to overthrow a repressive government
  
• but what they wanted wasn't what we expected--that may not lead to what we see as freedom
• we thought the internet would lead to democracy, society that values diversity, freedom to live in a variety of ways
• instead new technologies were used to rebel but it seems to be going towards a society more limited by religion (less diversity allowed)
  
• in addition, social technologies can be repressed or used for repression--to some extent governments can control or use the technology to take their country in a different direction
• is the impact of technology on society inevitable?
• no, different societies make different choices about technology
• on the other hand, technology is not just an unbiassed tool that can take us in any direction
• technologies tend to favor a particular direction
• automobile caught on because it matched American values of privacy and independence, then the technology encourages those values to grow stronger
  
• Life with the Amish:  An MIT graduate wrote a book about how they are better off
• don't use internal combustion or steam engines
• don't use electricity
• do use windmills to pump water out of wells
• they limit technology to preserve a traditional farming way of life
• technologies can be used for good or bad, but often are biased towards leading us in one direction or another
  

Then Nye gives a survey of the tradition of technological determinism, showing that even the people who are associated with the idea had more complex views:

• people in the early 19th century tended to see the industrial revolution as inevitable
• Karl Marx is often seen as a technological determinist, particularly for the quote that: "The hand-mill gives you society with the feudal lord; the steam-mill, society with the industrial capitalist" (The Poverty of Philosophy, p. 92).  But Nye points out that Marx lists all the problems of industrialization under capitalism but says that under socialism technology will be beneficial.  It is the government system that determines history, not technology.
• Vladimir Lenin believed something similar about how a new political system could use the benefits of technology: "Communism is Soviet power plus the electrification of the entire country."  Painting of Lenin giving that speech:
  
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• William Ogburn came up with the idea that society lags behind in adapting to technological change, but he did not think that technological inventions were the primary source of social change.
• Marshall McLuhan and Alvin Toffler (in a book titled Future Shock) popularized the idea that technology is changing us faster than we can adapt, but they didn't look at where new technologies come from
  
• Jacques Ellul wrote that technology is out of control (here's an introduction to a book that might help you understand the issue of determinism)
  
• Herbert Marcuse wrote that technology is making us cogs in a machine
• Theodore Roszak wrote that our society has become a technocracy where democracy is disappearing as more and more decisions are made by experts
• Michael Foucault said we are caught up in a world view where bureaucracies have more and more control over us through technology
• common dream: if only we can invent the right technology, our lives will be better, not only materially, but also socially
  

Thinking critically about technological determinism gives us two ideas:

• if we do have choices, how do we make good choices
• you can't necessarily invent a technology to solve a problem (the technological fix), human choice will always come in as well
  

Could technology mostly solve the problem of being robbed in the street?

• surveillance cameras, eliminate cash and replace it with a card with strong identification
• technology to take away the opportunity for crime is tempting
• seems easier than making people more moral
• but it means giving up some freedom
  

the idea that technology will solve problems has been popular with influential thinkers
but it is a dangerous idea, we can't fix human nature with technology
because we can still make choices

What is democracy and is it important?

• we choose our leaders by elections
• so we have a voice in what direction our country goes in
• and we can protect our interests
• how can technology add or take away from that?
  

Instead, says Nye citing Langdon Winner, we make choices all the time.

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