Why haven't we seen robots
replacing workers as much as expected?
- we thought that machines would give us a life of
leisure
- some simple jobs are hard for a robot to do
because it is hard to program a robot to adjust to
small variations
- workers are often cheaper than robots--would it
be worthwhile for McDonalds to replace all its workers
with robots?
- workers are particularly cheaper in other
countries--eg. outsourcing of computer programming to
India
- we may say we want to interact with people, but
there wasn't much resistance to the replacement of
bank tellers with machines
- computerization gave workers more information
rather than taking away control
- hours worked per year has actually been
increasing since 1970, not continuing to decrease
- efficiency has tended to mean fewer workers are
expected to do more (this is true of professionals as
well as factory workers)
- technology gives us more and more things to buy
- would you rather work longer hours or make less
money?
Even though robots haven't replaced too many jobs so
far, is this time different?
- driverless trucks could replace a key set of jobs
- expert systems can replace work that requires
thought
- computers are now better than radiologists in
finding cancer on images
- jobs where machines will never replace people?
- jobs where human interaction is crucial
- jobs that require creativity (computer can
learn, they can discover patterns and follow them,
they can do trial and error very quickly, but they
don't have the highest level of creativity)
- politics--see notes above on technocracy
- blue collar problem solving jobs like plumbers
- why would you? the choices made by businesses
depend on what makes more money
- what directions could this go in?
- we could make a greater commitment to protect
jobs, maybe by encouraging labor unions
- change could be gradual enough, wages low
enough, immigration restricted enough that there
continue to be enough jobs, but many would be bad
jobs
- tax the robots (value added tax), pay a
universal basic income, allow people to pursue
creative pursuits that don't pay if they are willing
to live very simply
Will
technological advancements replace manual labor?
- is the machine cheaper
- are there skills that are hard to program into a
machine
- will people value doing the work or a hand made
product
Will technological advancements replace
cognitive labor? Will jobs that require higher education
be replaced by artificial intelligence?
Melvin
Kranzberg's six laws of technology state:
1st - Technology is
neither good nor bad; nor is it neutral.
2nd - Invention is the mother of necessity.
3rd - Technology comes in packages, big and small.
4th - Although technology might be a prime element
in many public issues, nontechnical factors take
precedence in technology-policy decisions.
5th - All history is relevant, but the history of
technology is the most relevant.
6th - Technology is a very human activity - and so
is the history of technology.