Smil 7b

Technological determinism?

• does technological progress follow an inevitable path?
• is it true that anything we can do we will do?
  
• does technology determine society?

No, but energy/technology can give comparative wealth and power

• having energy sources available doesn't do much without new technologies to use them
  
• invention of better ways to use energy sources (what Smil calls controls) are as important as the energy
• energy has little to do with ideals and high culture
• more energy use does not predictably make life better
• compare South Korea and Israel--South Korea uses almost twice as much energy
  

Smil argues (p. 424) that we won't run out of fossil fuels, though the price will go up
but the more serious concern is climate change

global warming

• worst case: We have just 12 years to prevent, through very expensive investment and radical changes to our energy policy, the planet’s temperature from rising more than 1.5C
• sea level rise viewer
• what would replace fossil fuel? solar, wind (key for these is improved energy storage), possibly nuclear, some biomass, some geothermal, some hydroelectric, reducing energy use
  
• evangelical religious perspectives: young evangelicals for climate action
• Forbes on technological solutions
  
• Smil's perspective on technological solutions
• counter argument that it could be done in a decade
  

What have we learned that would help us approach the next energy transition?